2 Billion Infected? WHO Stokes Swine Flu Fear

2 Billion Infected? WHO Stokes Swine Flu Fear:

"DAN CHILDS and MICHELLE SCHLIEF

ABC News
Friday, May 8, 2009

The World Health Organization may have inadvertently triggered a new wave of fear over the threat of a swine flu pandemic today by suggesting that up to 2 billion people could be infected if the current outbreak worsens.

“If the situation continues to evolve and the virus does become established in other countries, and we do move into a pandemic, we would expect the virus to infect many people,” said WHO chief Keiji Fukuda at a press conference today. “Perhaps a third of the world’s population could be infected with this virus, based on previous pandemic.”
Fukuda quickly noted to reporters that he was making statement based on data from past pandemics and was not a predicting what would happen with the current swine flu outbreak.

“I do not want you to walk out of here saying that there is an estimate that 2 billion will get infected in the next year or so,” he said.
“Please do not interpret this as a prediction for the future.”

The comment immediately ignited debate among infectious disease experts.

“I think that WHO could serve the world health better by providing a more evidence-based, sensible ‘benchmark’ of H1N1 infection,” said Ed Hsu, associate professor of public health informatics at the University of Texas School of Health Information Sciences and School of Public Health. He argued that the 2 billion figure, based on past pandemics, does not take into account recent public health improvements. Moreover, his own research has suggested that the rate of swine flu infection in the United States may have already stabilized"